Bitcoin Rolling Returns & CAGR Chart

How the Bitcoin Rolling Returns & CAGR Chart works

This chart computes Bitcoin’s rolling 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-year compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from daily closes, treating every day as a possible start date. It shows how long-horizon holding returns have widened or compressed across cycles.

What you enter

• None; it uses Binance BTCUSDT daily closes since August 2017.

What it shows

• Current 1Y, 2Y, 3Y and 4Y CAGR cards (green when positive, red when negative)
• Positive 4Y observations: share of 4-year windows that ended above their start
• Multi-line chart of the four rolling CAGR series

How to use it

1. Read the current 1Y to 4Y CAGR cards.
2. Check "Positive 4Y observations" for the share of 4-year windows that finished above their start.
3. On the chart, compare the noisy 1-year line with the 4-year line.
4. Watch the trend of the 4-year line to see whether long-run returns are compressing.
5. Cross-check with the monthly returns calendar for calendar-period detail.

Formula

CAGR_n(t) = (P_t ÷ P_(t − n × 365.25 days))^(1/n) − 1 for n = 1, 2, 3, 4 years, using daily closes (the chart plots every 7th point). P_t is the close on day t.

Worked example

If BTC is $100,000 today and was $25,000 four years ago: (100,000 ÷ 25,000)^(1/4) − 1 = 4^0.25 − 1 = 1.414 − 1 ≈ +41.4% a year.

How to read the result

• A 4-year window spans roughly one halving cycle, which reduces start-date luck.
• A falling 4-year CAGR trend shows long-run returns compressing over time.
• The 1-year CAGR swings widely and mostly reflects the current cycle phase.

Limits and cautions

• History starts in August 2017, so 4-year windows only exist from 2021.
• Rolling windows overlap heavily, so observations are not independent.
• Past CAGR does not indicate future returns.

Common questions

What is a rolling return?

The return over a fixed-length window measured from every possible start date, not just calendar years, showing the range of outcomes holders actually experienced.

Why use a 4-year window for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin halvings come roughly every four years, so a 4-year window usually covers a full cycle and depends less on a single entry point.

Is CAGR the same as average annual return?

No. CAGR is the constant yearly rate that compounds from the start value to the end value; the arithmetic average of yearly returns is usually higher when returns are volatile.