MVRV Z-Score Bottom Signals: Historical Backtest
CryptoRebateHub Editorial Team
Average returns and holding periods after MVRV entered the green zone in each cycle
MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between Bitcoin's current market cap and its realized cap — a classic on-chain tool for identifying cycle bottoms.
Formula: (Market Cap - Realized Cap) ÷ Standard Deviation of Market Cap
Historical Bottom Signals (MVRV < 0.1) Backtested:
| Period | Buy Price | 12M Later | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2011 | ~$2.5 | ~ 3 | +420% |
| Jan 2015 | ~ 70 | ~$430 | +153% |
| Dec 2018 | ~$3,200 | ~$7,200 | +125% |
| Nov 2022 | ~ 6,000 | ~$37,000 | +131% |
Conclusion: Every time MVRV entered the deep green zone (<0.1), returns 12 months later were positive and significant. But this is not a buy signal — combine with other indicators and your own risk tolerance.
Data: Glassnode. For reference only, not financial advice.
