Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Chart

The 4-year cost centroid — live price-to-200W-MA multiple. This is the compact Tools edition; the wider professional analysis workspace is available in the Charts Hub.

How to read the 200-week moving average

The 200-week moving average is the mean of Bitcoin’s weekly closes over roughly four years—about one full halving cycle. The chart plots weekly price and the 200-week average on a log scale and shows the current price divided by the average.

Key points

  • A multiple near or below 1 means price is close to its long-run average; historically this has appeared late in bear markets.
  • A high multiple means price is far above its long-run average, and volatility and drawdown risk are usually larger.
  • Read it with the power-law percentile and the cycle thermometer; that is more reliable than one average alone.

Data and limits

The average is computed from exchange weekly candles since 2018; the latest week uses the live price, so the reading changes until the weekly close. Past patterns are not guaranteed to repeat.

Common questions

Why does the 200-week moving average get so much attention?

Two hundred weeks covers roughly one full halving cycle, so the line approximates Bitcoin’s long-run average cost. Several past bear-market lows formed near it, which is why it is used as a long-term valuation reference.

What does it mean when price falls below the 200-week average?

Price is below its long-run average. In the 2022 bear market price fell clearly below the line, so it is not an absolute floor; treat it as a low-valuation zone rather than a precise entry point.

Read next

How the Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Chart works

This chart plots Bitcoin’s weekly price against its 200-week simple moving average and shows the current price-to-average multiple. Long-term holders use it to see how far price has stretched above or below its multi-year average.

What you enter

  • None; it uses exchange weekly closes since 2018 and the live BTC price.

What it shows

  • Log chart of BTC weekly closes and the 200-week MA
  • Current price / 200-week MA multiple (×)
  • Current 200-week MA value and BTC price

How to use it

  1. Read the "Price / 200-week MA" multiple in the result box.
  2. Note the current 200-week MA value shown below it.
  3. On the chart, compare the orange price line with the cyan 200-week MA line.
  4. Check the multiple’s color: green at 1× or below, yellow from 2×, red from 3×.
  5. Cross-check with the power law or Mayer Multiple pages for another view.

Formula

200W MA = average of the last 200 weekly closes; multiple = current price ÷ 200W MA.

Worked example

If BTC is at $90,000 and the 200-week MA is $45,000: 90,000 ÷ 45,000 = 2.00×, shown in yellow (≥ 2×). At $40,000 the multiple would be 0.89×, shown in green (≤ 1×).

How to read the result

  • A multiple near or below 1× has historically coincided with deep bear-market phases.
  • Rising multiples above 2–3× mean price is far above its multi-year average.
  • The slope of the average itself shows whether the long-run mean is still rising.

Limits and cautions

  • The average is a historical reference, not a guaranteed floor; price fell below it in 2022.
  • This page builds the average only from evenly spaced weekly data since 2018, so the line starts about 200 weeks later.
  • A lagging average reacts slowly to regime changes.

Common questions

What is the Bitcoin 200-week moving average?

The simple average of the last 200 weekly closing prices, roughly four years, often used as a long-term trend reference.

Has Bitcoin ever traded below the 200-week MA?

Yes. Price fell below it in 2022, so it should not be treated as guaranteed support.

How is the 200-week multiple different from the Mayer Multiple?

The Mayer Multiple divides price by the 200-day moving average; the 200-week multiple uses the 200-week average, a much longer window.

🌡 Latest BTC cycle reading: 43/100 · Neutral Zone (as of 2026-10-19). BTC Cycle Thermometer: Bitcoin top or bottom?

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