Direct answer: first read Bitcoin’s current position through Power Law percentile, cycle temperature, trend, drawdown and volatility, then move into validation, alerts and reproducible research.
Percentiles, empirical ranges, composite scores and backtests are historical research readings, not forecasts or trading signals. Estimated metrics are labeled; the site does not claim proprietary entity-clustered or order-flow data.
Direct answer: Bitcoin Intelligence is the site's free workspace for one question: where does Bitcoin sit today relative to its own long-run history? Start with the [Power Law chart](/charts/bitcoin-power-law) and the [Cycle Thermometer](/tools/cycle-signal), keep both in the [multi-metric terminal](/tools/bitcoin-intelligence-terminal), and only then move on to backtests, alerts or saved research.
The hub groups five capabilities that build on each other, and none of them needs an account to read:
Read the four together rather than picking the one that agrees with you.
| Reading | What it measures | Where to open it | Typical use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation percentile | Where today's log residual ranks against the historical Power Law residuals | Power Law chart | Long-horizon context: historically cheap or stretched? |
| Cycle temperature | Nine normalized inputs combined into a 0–100 reference | Cycle Thermometer, Cycle Dashboard | Checking whether several signals agree |
| Trend strength | Long-horizon moving average, one-year momentum and price direction | Terminal, 200-week MA | Separating a pullback from a broken trend |
| Drawdown and volatility | Distance from the already-observed all-time high, and realized volatility of past returns | Drawdown chart, Volatility chart | Sizing expectations for how rough the ride can be |
Drawdown is the decline from the historical peak; realized volatility comes from past returns, so both change with the lookback window.
When valuation, cycle and trend agree, the picture is clearer; when they disagree, that is the information. The guide to the single-indicator trap explains why one reading alone is fragile.
The Power Law Backtester refits monthly using only data available at each decision, tests percentile rebalancing, and includes fees, slippage and a dollar-cost-averaging benchmark with identical cash flows. The Backtest Lab adds a three-rule comparison on the same capital and costs, a 25-setting parameter neighborhood, sequential train/test folds (out-of-sample testing on data not used for tuning), fee and slippage stress, and block bootstrap resampling with a fixed seed.
Alerts use double opt-in: submitting the form does nothing until you click the link in the confirmation email. You can watch the percentile crossing up or down into a level, Years Ahead of Support falling to a value, or the cycle score crossing a value. A scheduled job checks once a day, sends on a first hit, and then only after the metric leaves and re-enters the zone. Email is the primary channel; Telegram is optional and connected through the private link in your email. Alerts never place trades, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
No. The readings, terminal, backtests and local research workspace are free and need no login. Alerts need only an email address that you confirm.
No. It only says the price is low relative to past residuals of the fitted trend. Test any rule built on it in the Backtest Lab first.
Price roughly every 90 seconds; the cycle score and alert checks daily. History-based readings can lag by up to the 12-hour cache.
Alerts fire on a first hit and then only on a fresh crossing, so a metric that stays inside a zone does not send repeated emails. You can pause, resume or view trigger history in the Alert Center.
The Power Law model explainer, the Cycle Thermometer guide and the methodology page cover inputs, formulas and limits.
Research only, not investment advice.
