Bull & Bear Cycles: The Four Phases and the Sentiment Map
CryptoRebateHub Editorial Team
Accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown — cycles repeat. Knowing which phase you are in beats calling tops and bottoms.
The four phases
- Accumulation: sideways after panic, smart money quietly buys, sentiment is dull. 2) Markup: a breakout confirms the trend, attention returns. 3) Distribution: choppy highs, early money offloads, news is loudest. 4) Markdown: the trend reverses, lower highs and lows, retail capitulates.
The sentiment map Bottoms map to "despair/boredom," tops to "euphoria/greed." The Fear & Greed index, social buzz, and search volume are supporting thermometers — extremes tend to cluster near turning points.
Why it helps You cannot perfectly nail bottoms and tops, but you can roughly read the phase: cut leverage and scale out in extreme greed; scale in during extreme fear. That alone changes long-run outcomes.
Mistakes to avoid Going all-in chasing during distribution because a dip "looks like an entry," or endlessly "buying the dip" through markdown. Use tools like a cycle dashboard to gauge position rather than going on feel.
See also cycle dashboard, halving countdown, Bull-Bear Cycle Psychology: Why Retail Buys Tops and Sells Bottoms
