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Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

Log regression bands · Fire sale zone or peak bubble?. Full-screen analysis with a near full-width primary canvas, focus mode, interpretation guidance, data methodology and a fixed return path to the Charts Hub; the compact Tools edition remains available.

Primary analysis canvas

Log regression bands · Fire sale zone or peak bubble?

How to read it

Confirm the timeframe and current indicator position, then cross-check it against historical ranges, trend direction and related charts.

Evidence-based interpretation

The site interpretation engine shows shared market context, a reading lens, confirmation evidence, invalidation conditions and the next cross-check chart. Shared context is not this chart’s own metric and is not a price forecast.

View relationship

Open the compact Tools edition

How the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart works

Places the Bitcoin price within nine colored bands around a log-regression trendline fitted to past cycles, answering where today's price sits relative to the long-run growth curve. It is a descriptive valuation heuristic, not a trading signal.

What you enter

  • Range: All, 10Y, 5Y, 3Y, 1Y
  • Interval: Weekly or Monthly price line

What it shows

  • Log-scale price chart with nine rainbow bands
  • Current BTC price and the active band label (for example HODL / Neutral)
  • Band list from Basically a Fire Sale to Maximum Bubble with a You are here marker
  • Export PNG and Export band CSV buttons

How to use it

  1. Choose a range, starting with All for the full history.
  2. Choose Weekly or Monthly for the price line.
  3. Find the current price marker within the colored bands.
  4. Read the highlighted label in the band list.
  5. Compare with past cycle peaks and troughs in the same bands.

Formula

Days = days since 2009-01-03; log10(center) = 2.0005 × ln(days) − 12.562. Offset = log10(price) − log10(center); the band is the nearest of offsets −0.40, −0.29, −0.18, −0.07, +0.04, +0.15, +0.26, +0.37, +0.48.

Worked example

On a hypothetical date of 2026-01-01, days = 6,207; log10(center) = 2.0005 × ln(6,207) − 12.562 ≈ 4.909, center ≈ 81,140 USD. For a price of 100,000 USD: offset = 5.000 − 4.909 = 0.091; the nearest band offset is +0.04 (distance 0.051 versus 0.059 to +0.15), so the label is HODL / Neutral.

How to read the result

  • Cool bands mean price is below the fitted trend; warm bands mean above it.
  • Band labels are tongue-in-cheek descriptions, not instructions.
  • Use the band alongside other valuation charts, not on its own.

Limits and cautions

  • The regression is fitted to past data and may stop describing future prices.
  • History before Binance data begins in 2017 uses sparse monthly reference closes, so early detail is low.
  • Band boundaries are chosen offsets, not statistically derived confidence intervals.

Common questions

How is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart calculated?

A log regression of price against days since the genesis block defines a center line; the nine bands are fixed log10 offsets around it, and price is assigned to the nearest band.

Is the Bitcoin rainbow chart reliable?

It is a curve fit to history, not a value model. It has roughly described past cycles but has no predictive guarantee and can be refitted.

Which band is Bitcoin in now?

The page computes it live from the current BTC price and today's date; see the highlighted label and the You are here marker.