Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator
111-day MA vs 350-day MA × 2 — cycle-top crossover distance. Full-screen analysis with a near full-width primary canvas, focus mode, interpretation guidance, data methodology and a fixed return path to the Charts Hub; the compact Tools edition remains available.
Primary analysis canvas
111-day MA vs 350-day MA × 2 — cycle-top crossover distance
How to read it
Confirm the timeframe and current indicator position, then cross-check it against historical ranges, trend direction and related charts.
Evidence-based interpretation
The site interpretation engine shows shared market context, a reading lens, confirmation evidence, invalidation conditions and the next cross-check chart. Shared context is not this chart’s own metric and is not a price forecast.
View relationship
How the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator works
Compares the 111-day simple moving average with twice the 350-day simple moving average, both computed from exchange daily closes, and shows how far the 111-day line is from crossing above. Historically, these crossovers occurred near some cycle tops.
What you enter
- No controls; hover over or tap the chart to read values.
What it shows
- Log-scale chart of BTC price, the 111D SMA and the 350D SMA × 2
- Current 111D SMA and 350D SMA × 2 values
- Distance to crossover (%), highlighted in red when below 10%
How to use it
- Read the Distance to crossover tile.
- Compare the 111D SMA (cyan) with the 350D SMA × 2 (magenta).
- Check whether the distance is closing quickly or slowly.
- Look at past crossovers on the chart for context.
- Combine it with other valuation charts before drawing conclusions.
Formula
Signal line = SMA111(daily closes); threshold line = 2 × SMA350(daily closes). Distance % = (2 × SMA350 / SMA111 − 1) × 100. A top signal is the 111-day SMA crossing above 2 × the 350-day SMA.
Worked example
If SMA111 = 80,000 USD and SMA350 = 50,000 USD, the threshold = 100,000 USD. Distance = (100,000 / 80,000 − 1) × 100 = 25%: the 111-day line would need to rise 25% relative to the threshold line to cross it.
How to read the result
- A large positive distance means the lines are far apart.
- Fast convergence matters more than the absolute distance.
- A crossover is a historical pattern, not confirmation of a top.
Limits and cautions
- Very few historical crossovers exist, so the sample is tiny.
- Daily data starts in August 2017, so crossovers before 2018 are not plotted here.
- Both averages lag; the signal can arrive late or never.
Common questions
What is the Pi Cycle Top indicator?
It compares the 111-day moving average with twice the 350-day moving average. When the 111-day crosses above, it has historically coincided with some Bitcoin cycle highs.
Why is it called Pi Cycle?
350 / 111 ≈ 3.153, close to pi (3.142), hence the indicator's name.
Has the Pi Cycle Top crossover happened?
Check the Distance to crossover tile: a positive value means the 111-day SMA is still below 2 × the 350-day SMA, so there is no crossover on the latest close.
