Bitcoin Cycle Repeat Chart
Previous halving path projected onto this cycle — custom anchor dates (advanced). Full-screen analysis with a near full-width primary canvas, focus mode, interpretation guidance, data methodology and a fixed return path to the Charts Hub; the compact Tools edition remains available.
Primary analysis canvas
Previous halving path projected onto this cycle — custom anchor dates (advanced)
How to read it
Confirm the timeframe and current indicator position, then cross-check it against historical ranges, trend direction and related charts.
Evidence-based interpretation
The site interpretation engine shows shared market context, a reading lens, confirmation evidence, invalidation conditions and the next cross-check chart. Shared context is not this chart’s own metric and is not a price forecast.
View relationship
How the Bitcoin Cycle Repeat Chart works
Projects the previous cycle's price path after its anchor onto the current cycle, scaling its multiples to the current anchor price, so you can see whether the actual path runs ahead of or behind a hypothetical exact repeat. It is a scenario tool, not a forecast.
What you enter
- This cycle anchor (date, default 2024-04-20)
- Reference cycle anchor (date, default 2020-05-11)
What it shows
- Log-scale chart of this cycle's actual weekly price
- Dashed projection of the reference cycle scaled to the current anchor (1,460 days)
- Projected peak if the reference path repeated exactly, and the day after the anchor when it would occur
How to use it
- Keep the default anchors (the last two halvings) or set custom dates.
- Compare the orange actual line with the dashed projection.
- Note whether the actual line runs above or below the projection.
- Read the projected peak and its day count as a scenario.
- Change the anchors to test how sensitive the comparison is.
Formula
m(d) = price(reference anchor + d) / price(reference anchor); projection(current anchor + d) = price(current anchor) × m(d), for d = 0–1,460 days. Anchor price = last weekly close on or before the anchor date.
Worked example
Unitless example: reference anchor price 100; its path later peaks at 6×. Current anchor price 200. Projected peak = 200 × 6 = 1,200 at the same day offset. If the actual price at that offset is 900, it is 25% below the projection (900 / 1,200 = 0.75).
How to read the result
- If the actual line is above the projection, this cycle is running ahead of the reference path.
- The gap between the two matters more than the projected peak value.
- Robust conclusions should survive a change of anchors.
Limits and cautions
- The projection assumes a perfect repeat, which history does not deliver.
- Results depend heavily on the anchor dates and the anchor-week price.
- Structural changes such as ETFs or liquidity cycles can break historical analogies.
Common questions
Will Bitcoin repeat the last cycle?
Nobody knows. This chart only shows what the price path would be if it did, as a reference line to compare with the actual path.
What are the anchor dates?
By default, the two most recent halvings. You can change both dates to compare any two starting points.
How is the projected peak calculated?
It is the reference cycle's highest multiple over the 1,460 days after its anchor, multiplied by the price at the current anchor.
